Fe Fi Fo Fum, Mark Kirk is a Scared Congressman!

mark kirk is worried.  he’s not supposed to be in a race this november.  he’s wrapped up the last two elections with spectacular victories, and one hears that he’s made a deal with rahm emanuel so that his current opponent won’t get dccc support (this is gossip).

yet mark kirk acts worried!

you can understand why.  there are numerous indicators out there that suggest that kirk is in trouble.  many of these are inter-related.  kirk’s biggest problem is that this upcoming election will be, for many voters, about george bush.  as stuart rothenberg puts it, “<a href=”http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/”>what is developing is a classic political wave of voter dissatisfaction about the direction of the nation and the performance of the president. Congressional candidates from the president’s party are about to bear the brunt of voter dissatisfaction, because President Bush isn’t on the ballot. Republican incumbents are in trouble not because they are incumbents, but because they are Republicans.</a>”

of course, mark kirk has always hid from the fact that he’s a republican, and voters have let him get away with it.  but this time could be different. voters won’t forgive george bush for his reckless actions, and mark kirk is the only person they can take it out on.  as bloomberg points out, “<a href=”http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=anXdN2hm7YHY&refer=us”>Thirty-six percent of those polled said the congressional elections on Nov. 7 will be an opportunity cast a symbolic vote against the president, up from 15 percent before the last mid- term election in 2002, according to the survey by the Washington-base Pew Center</a>.” no wonder kirk looked so scared at the buffalo grove parade!

there’s another reality that haunts kirk: illinois is turning a darker shade of blue.  “<a href=”http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/politics/chi-0609130173sep13,1,7327469,print.story?coll=chi-politics-topheadlines”>The percentage of Illinois voters who call themselves Democrats is at its highest pre-election level in more than a decade, posing a problem for Republicans trying to win the governor’s mansion and key congressional seats, a Tribune/WGN-TV poll shows</a>.”

admittedly, “In the collar counties, 31 percent of voters aligned themselves with Republicans while 29 percent identified with Democrats.”  but the problem here is that there are not enough republicans for kirk to win based on his record of loyalty to the republican party and president bush’s positions.  kirk either needs to win a majority of independent voters or suppress the vote.  he’s won the former in the past.  that may not help him in november.

kirk’s biggest problem is keeping voters from viewing seals as a winner.  his tactic in the last two races was to basically dismiss his challengers.  his apologists have tried that again, this time.  but with obama’s support (and the inevitable commercials making that clear), kirk has a problem.  obama’s 2-0, with one victory against the illinois machine.  kirk’s may be his next scalp!